Understanding dropping odds in betting can help bettors to make good wagers on football, sports or any other event. Judging dropping odds helps bettors to also find good value in real-time markets.
In this handy guide, we explain what the term means in betting. We will also share some of the best tips and strategies on how to react to dropping odds in the betting market.
What are dropping odds?
Dropping odds are when bookmakers adjust their odds following many bets placed on the outcome of an event. Bookmakers drop odds to reflect the true value and probability of a winner or outcome.
For example, if Manchester United are playing Manchester City in the top division, the odds for United to win may initially be 2.5 for weeks and days before the match. But, on matchday, the odds could drop to 2.4, 2.3 etc as more team news and information becomes available. Bookmakers are simply reacting to events and altering their odds as a result.
Usually, dropping odds in a betting market follow lots of bettors placing money on a particular wager. As a result, the bookmakers react by dropping their odds for an event, like the Europa League, ITF or La Liga.
More bets may be placed on a team or individual following news of injuries, withdrawals or form before it has become public knowledge. In horse racing, for example, odds regularly drop in the final 15 minutes before a race. This is usually after punters have got a look at the horses racing, or if news about a jockey or racehorse has come out.
How to use dropping odds? – Our strategy
There are many ways punters can gain an advantage from dropping odds. By following the tips below, you can start to value from dropping odds in various betting markets.
- Before a game: Monitoring the odds posted by a variety of bookmakers helps bettors to spot trends and good value in multiple markets. Researching teams, players and potential outcomes give you an advantage. Acting quickly to market movement can also lead to better value odds before a fixture begins. For example, if England is going to play Portugal and Cristiano Ronaldo is injured leading up to the match, the odds for a Portugal win will drop. If you bet on England to win initially, you could cash out for higher odds as a result of Ronaldo’s injury. Keeping watch of the early cash-out value means you can make a profit before the match has even kicked off.
In-Play: Making bets in play has to be done in real-time and depends on what happens during the action. Reacting to all on-field events and cashing out at the right time can produce great returns before live dropping odds. For example, if Chelsea plays Liverpool the odds for the next card going to a Chelsea player may drop by 15% or more. This is an indication that many punters believe this is likely based on events in previous Chelsea and Liverpool fixtures. Being one step ahead, knowing the teams and their trends inside out is key for in-play odds dropping strategy.
Dropping odds 1×2: how to benefit from this?
1×2 betting means making a prediction on a home win (1), a draw (x) or an away victory (2). Bettors can use dropping odds to gain an advantage in the outright betting market by following trends and odds drops in the lead up to a fixture.
Players must identify upcoming fixtures where the odds have been dropped by a few percent before the match. If this is two or three bookmakers, bettors can react quickly and get better odds from another bookmaker before they start to drop the odds. Close monitoring of bookmaker odds and reacting quickly are essential to benefit from 1×2 bets and dropping odds.
Dropping odds alert
Some bookmakers have features that alert players to any dropping odds or significant changes in particular market odds. This is usually on mobile apps, where notifications are sent regularly to punters.
There are pros and cons to dropping odds alerts. They can help bettors to react quickly to a changing market, helping to get the best value before the odds stabilise at a lower rate.
However, there are also negatives. Usually, if just one bookmaker has dropping odds, and it is not commonplace among multiple platforms, the bet may be low value. Dropping odds alerts should be checked with several bookmakers to verify the true value of the bet.
Furthermore, if there is a steep drop in odds, it may be a worthwhile bet to commit to. Usually, any drop of 15% or more from the original value of a bet is a good investment for the bettor.
Where Can I Bet on dropping odds?
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Frequently asked questions about High Odds in Betting
Why do odds drop?
Odds can drop before and during an event in reaction to team or player information and form. In other markets, like entertainment or politics, odds may drop following the withdrawal of contestants.
Do dropping odds win?
Dropping odds are a reaction to widespread market activity and increased betting. However, this does not mean they are always guaranteed to win as it is entirely dependent on the outcome of an event.
What does it mean to accept odds changes?
By accepting odds changes, bettors are confirming with a bookmaker that they will accept any ups and downs from the original odds accepted. This takes place when an event is in play as odds change based on the live-action.
Odds drop ratio: what does it mean?
The odds drop ratio reflects the statistical probability of an event happening.
Plenty of value is available from understanding and observing dropping odds in betting. Being aware of trends in betting markets and widespread dropping odds among bookmakers can create value for the bettor.
To get the best value from dropping odds, cross-checking with bookmakers and recognising significant decreases in odds is key. This often indicates that there is good value to be taken from the best, and it’s a sign that the market is reacting to a significant event.
However, it is important to be reactive to different bookmakers. Relying on just one or two betting platforms can lead to little profit for the bettor.
When selecting a bonus or welcome offer from any bookmaker, please gamble responsibly and be aware of the Responsible Gambling principles. You must always take time to read and understand any promotional offer terms and conditions on the brand’s site. It is a player’s responsibility to ensure they are making an informed decision when you are opting for a bonus.